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| Iconic view of WW1 trench warfare |
In 2014 a televised discussion between historians Max
Hastings and Niall Ferguson was featured in the blog post of 14th
November that year. The debate was whether WW1 could have been prevented and,
in particular, whether Britain should have stayed out of it. At the time I came
down firmly on the side of Hastings’ argument that a worse war would have
followed within a few years. Now, re-reading Ferguson’s cogent arguments in his
book The Pity of War I am more
persuaded that WW1 as we know it would not have happened if Britain had stayed
out. War would not have been prevented, but a shorter conflict confined to
Europe would most likely have given victory to Germany and hegemony over Europe
(see Post 18/11/2018). What followed may have been more like the Napoleonic
wars than world war, and the attritional battles that cost so many lives may not have happened. With Germany ruling Europe maybe a resurgent nationalism in
France would have thrown up a French Hitler? Who knows? And similar reasoning
could be applied to Britain’s entry into WW2. Exploring endless ‘what ifs’ is
interesting, but ultimately what happened is what did happen.
Germany signed Article 231 to accept
responsibility for starting the conflagration, but they never believed it, and
all the other players must take some share of the blame, even if for
misjudgements rather than jingoism. Yes, the Kaiser may have been a sociopath
who wanted a fleet and empire bigger than his grandmother Victoria’s. But by
1914, he knew he had lost the naval arms race. He had the best army in the
world, but it would have to fight on two fronts and eventually would, inevitably,
be heavily outnumbered. He had backed away from war before 1914, and tried to
do so again with Austria when he countered his earlier ‘blank cheque’
undertaking. But by then it was too late to stop Austria’s attack on Serbia.
Perhaps Wilhelm was most guilty of listening too much, and uncritically, to his
military leaders.
“and
the heavens were rolling like a wheel on a track, and our sky was unfolding and
it would never look back” (Jackson Browne)
In the final crazy days of July 1914 a chain of events did unfold rapidly, but were they all unstoppable? All parties could have done things differently, but these are more what ifs.
And what about the vilified treaty of
Versailles and the next twenty years of world history? Recent posts have argued
that although mistakes were made and some terrible events followed, a great
many good things happened. Three oppressive empires were dismantled and the world moved
haltingly towards republics monarchies and democracy, largely holding off the forces of
revolution. The League of Nations eventually failed, but without it would the post
WW2 UN have been as robust as it has been for almost 75 years? It may not feel like it,
but there is less war in the world today than at any time in history (Homo Deus. Yuval Harari. Harper 2016).
Thank you for reading the blog.
Appendices
Appendix 1 – the Armistice Terms
November 11th 1918
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| Signed last page of the Armistice agreement |
Termination of hostilities on the Western
Front, on land and in the air, within six hours of signature.
Immediate evacuation of France, Belgium,
Luxembourg, and Alsace-Lorraine within 15 days. Sick and wounded may be left
for Allies to care for.
Immediate repatriation of all inhabitants
of those four territories in German hands.
Surrender of matériel: 5,000 artillery
pieces, 25,000 machine guns, 3,000 minenwerfers, 1,700 aircraft (including all
night bombers), 5,000 railway locomotives, 150,000 railway carriages and 5,000
road trucks.
Evacuation of territory on the west side of
the Rhine plus 30 km (19 mi) radius bridgeheads of the east side of the Rhine
at the cities of Mainz, Koblenz, and Cologne within 31 days.
Vacated territory to be occupied by Allied
troops, maintained at Germany's expense.
No removal or destruction of civilian goods
or inhabitants in evacuated territories and all military matériel and premises
to be left intact.
All minefields on land and sea to be
identified.
All means of communication (roads,
railways, canals, bridges, telegraphs, telephones) to be left intact, as well
as everything needed for agriculture and industry.
B.
Eastern and African Fronts
Immediate withdrawal of all German troops
in Romania and in what were the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and
the Russian Empire back to German territory as it was on 1 August 1914, although
tacit support was given to the pro-German West Russian Volunteer Army under the
guise of combating the Bolsheviks. The Allies to have access to these
countries.
Renunciation of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk
with Russia and of the Treaty of Bucharest with Romania.
Evacuation of German forces in Africa.
C.
At sea
Immediate cessation of all hostilities at
sea and surrender intact of all German submarines within 14 days.
Listed German surface vessels to be
interned within 7 days and the rest disarmed.
Free access to German waters for Allied
ships and for those of the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark and Sweden.
The naval blockade of Germany to continue.
Immediate evacuation of all Black Sea ports
and handover of all captured Russian vessels.
D.
General
Immediate release of all Allied prisoners
of war and interned civilians, without reciprocity.
Pending a financial settlement, surrender
of assets looted from Belgium, Romania and Russia.
Appendix 2 – The Articles of the Treaty
of Versailles
Articles 31
- 117 and Annexes Territorial rights and new borders relating to Belgium, Luxembourg,
Rhineland, Saar, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Heligoland, Free city of Danzig,
Schleswig and Russia.
Articles
118 - 158 and Annexes German Rights and Interests Outside Germany –Chain, Africa and Pacific
islands
Articles
159 - 213 Military,
Naval and Air Clauses
Articles
214 - 226 Prisoners
of War. Graves and repatriation costs
Articles
227 - 230 Penalties.
Arraignment of Kaiser Wilhelm and other war criminals
Articles
231 - 247 and Annexes 231 = Guilt Clause. Reparations to be determined by an Inter-Allied
Commission. Pay by 1921 20billion Goldmarks.
Articles 313 – 320 Aerial Navigation
Articles
321 - 386 Ports,
Waterways and Railways
Articles
387 - 399 Labour
Articles
400 - 440 and Annex Procedures,
guarantees and miscellaneous
Appendix 3 – The Post War treaties
Treaty
of Versailles 28th June 1919
Treaty
of Saint-Germain-en-Laye 10th September 1919.
Confirmed the dismantling of the
Austro-Hungarian empire; Czechoslovakia
and southern Slav states that would become Yugoslavia.
Romania expanded to include Transylvania and Bessarabia.
Poland was granted land occupied by Austria and Germany.
Treaty of Neuilly 27th November 1919
Confirmed Bulgaria’s loss of territory to the newly formed Yugoslavia,
to Romania and to Greece. It left Bulgaria without direct access to the Aegean
Sea.
Treaty of Trianon 4th June 1920
Signed with Hungary. Removed two-thirds of the
land it controlled as part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. Three million ethnic Hungarians now found themselves
living outside their country, most of them in Romania.
Treaty of Sevres 10th August 1920
Signed
with Turkey to confirm end of Ottoman empire. Its terms led to Turkey’s war of
independence in its war with Greece. Britain received a mandate for Palestine and
Mesopotamia, and France one for Lebanon and Syria.
Treaty of Lausanne 24th
July 1923
An extensive Treaty in which Ataturk held the upper hand and Allies were
no longer making the rules. Reversed much of the Treaty of Sevres to recognise
a sovereign, independent Turkey in return for Turkey’s permanent renunciation
of all other former Ottoman territories. It contained a convention for the exchange of Greek and Turkish populations
found on the wrong side of new borders.
Treaty of Locarno 5-16th October 1925
Extraordinary treaty
that contained seven agreements aimed at improving post war reconciliation
between France and Germany, and reducing tension in the new borders on
Germany’s east. Initially hailed as a success, with three of its authors
receiving Nobel Peace Prizes, in the long term it probably did more to
facilitate Hitler’s moves in the 1930s that the Treaty of Versailles.
The blog is excellent and I have learned a lot about the Great War from it. I became interested in the war after stumbling upon a copy of All Quiet On The Western Front in the high school library. I have to disagree with your statement in Conclusions and Appendices that some good came out of the war. You state that three oppressive empires were dismantled and the world moved haltingly toward republics monarchies and democracy, thereby fending off revolution. In my opinion Europe was much better off with the three empires than what followed. The German and Austro Hungarian Empires were not perfect but they were Christian and fairly decent to their citizens. Russia was far from perfect under the czars but what followed was the worst regime in the history of the world. Communism killed millions of Russians and lead to the rise of Hitler in opposition to communism, the Versailles treaty and World war II. Vladimir Putin has stated that tha fall of the Soviet Union is the worst thing in the history of the world. In my opinion the Great war was the worst thing in the history of the world because it lead to communism, Hitler, World War II, nuclear weapons, problems in the middle east, the rise of Japan and millions upon millions of deaths. Perhaps some advancements were made in medicine but not much else. If the Czar and Kaiser Wilhelm had not let the war happen, the world would be a lot better off. There was very little good that came out of that horrible and unnecessary war.
ReplyDeleteThanks Columbus, I'm pleased it's been useful.
DeleteRe your point - you're quite right, I can't disagree, although we will never know whether some or all of those things would have emerged without WW1