Conclusions and Appendices

Iconic view of WW1 trench warfare 

Over the past five years this blog has tracked the centenaries of the events of WW1. On numerous occasions, revisiting the terrible actions and suffering, the question has loomed large – ‘Surely this could have been prevented, or stopped?’ and it remains difficult to believe that such a continuing loss would be tolerated by public opinion today, whether in Europe or anywhere else.

In 2014 a televised discussion between historians Max Hastings and Niall Ferguson was featured in the blog post of 14^th November that year. The debate was whether WW1 could have been prevented and, in particular, whether Britain should have stayed out of it. At the time I came down firmly on the side of Hastings’ argument that a worse war would have followed within a few years. Now, re-reading Ferguson’s cogent arguments in his book The Pity of War I am more persuaded that WW1 as we know it would not have happened if Britain had stayed out. War would not have been prevented, but a shorter conflict confined to Europe would most likely have given victory to Germany and hegemony over Europe (see Post 18/11/2018). What followed may have been more like the Napoleonic wars than world war, and the attritional battles that cost so many lives may not have happened. With Germany ruling Europe maybe a resurgent nationalism in France would have thrown up a French Hitler? Who knows? And similar reasoning could be applied to Britain’s entry into WW2. Exploring endless ‘what ifs’ is interesting, but ultimately what happened is what did happen.

Germany signed Article 231 to accept responsibility for starting the conflagration, but they never believed it, and all the other players must take some share of the blame, even if for misjudgements rather than jingoism. Yes, the Kaiser may have been a sociopath who wanted a fleet and empire bigger than his grandmother Victoria’s. But by 1914, he knew he had lost the naval arms race. He had the best army in the world, but it would have to fight on two fronts and eventually would, inevitably, be heavily outnumbered. He had backed away from war before 1914, and tried to do so again with Austria when he countered his earlier ‘blank cheque’ undertaking. But by then it was too late to stop Austria’s attack on Serbia. Perhaps Wilhelm was most guilty of listening too much, and uncritically, to his military leaders.

“and the heavens were rolling like a wheel on a track, and our sky was unfolding and it would never look back” (Jackson Browne)

In the final crazy days of July 1914 a chain of events did unfold rapidly, but were they all unstoppable? All parties could have done things differently, but these are more what ifs.

And what about the vilified treaty of Versailles and the next twenty years of world history? Recent posts have argued that although mistakes were made and some terrible events followed, a great many good things happened. Three oppressive empires were dismantled and the world moved haltingly towards republics monarchies and democracy, largely holding off the forces of revolution. The League of Nations eventually failed, but without it would the post WW2 UN have been as robust as it has been for almost 75 years? It may not feel like it, but there is less war in the world today than at any time in history (Homo Deus. Yuval Harari. Harper 2016).

Thank you for reading the blog.

Appendices

Appendix 1 – the Armistice Terms November 11^th 1918

Signed last page of the Armistice agreement

There were 34 Clauses, with these main points:

 A. Western Front

Termination of hostilities on the Western Front, on land and in the air, within six hours of signature.

Immediate evacuation of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and Alsace-Lorraine within 15 days. Sick and wounded may be left for Allies to care for.

Immediate repatriation of all inhabitants of those four territories in German hands.

Surrender of matériel: 5,000 artillery pieces, 25,000 machine guns, 3,000 minenwerfers, 1,700 aircraft (including all night bombers), 5,000 railway locomotives, 150,000 railway carriages and 5,000 road trucks.

Evacuation of territory on the west side of the Rhine plus 30 km (19 mi) radius bridgeheads of the east side of the Rhine at the cities of Mainz, Koblenz, and Cologne within 31 days.

Vacated territory to be occupied by Allied troops, maintained at Germany's expense.

No removal or destruction of civilian goods or inhabitants in evacuated territories and all military matériel and premises to be left intact.

All minefields on land and sea to be identified.

All means of communication (roads, railways, canals, bridges, telegraphs, telephones) to be left intact, as well as everything needed for agriculture and industry.

B. Eastern and African Fronts

Immediate withdrawal of all German troops in Romania and in what were the Ottoman Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Russian Empire back to German territory as it was on 1 August 1914, although tacit support was given to the pro-German West Russian Volunteer Army under the guise of combating the Bolsheviks. The Allies to have access to these countries.

Renunciation of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk with Russia and of the Treaty of Bucharest with Romania.

Evacuation of German forces in Africa.

C. At sea

Immediate cessation of all hostilities at sea and surrender intact of all German submarines within 14 days.

Listed German surface vessels to be interned within 7 days and the rest disarmed.

Free access to German waters for Allied ships and for those of the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark and Sweden.

The naval blockade of Germany to continue.

Immediate evacuation of all Black Sea ports and handover of all captured Russian vessels.

D. General

Immediate release of all Allied prisoners of war and interned civilians, without reciprocity.

Pending a financial settlement, surrender of assets looted from Belgium, Romania and Russia.

Appendix 2 – The Articles of the Treaty of Versailles

Articles 1 - 30 and Annex   The Covenant of the League of Nations. No German membership. If one nation declares war, all members to stop it.

Articles 31 - 117 and Annexes  Territorial rights and new borders relating to Belgium, Luxembourg, Rhineland, Saar, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Heligoland, Free city of Danzig, Schleswig and Russia.

Articles 118 - 158 and Annexes  German Rights and Interests Outside Germany –Chain, Africa and Pacific islands

Articles 159 - 213  Military, Naval and Air Clauses

Articles 214 - 226  Prisoners of War. Graves and repatriation costs

Articles 227 - 230  Penalties. Arraignment of Kaiser Wilhelm and other war criminals

Articles 231 - 247 and Annexes  231 = Guilt Clause. Reparations to be determined by an Inter-Allied Commission. Pay by 1921 20billion Goldmarks.

Articles 248 - 312 Financial and economic clauses

Articles 313 – 320  Aerial Navigation

Articles 321 - 386  Ports, Waterways and Railways

Articles 387 - 399  Labour

Articles 400 - 440 and Annex  Procedures, guarantees and miscellaneous

Appendix 3 – The Post War treaties

Treaty of Versailles    28^th June 1919

Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye    10^th September 1919.

Confirmed the dismantling of the Austro-Hungarian empire; Czechoslovakia and southern Slav states that would become Yugoslavia.

Romania expanded to include Transylvania and Bessarabia.

Poland was granted land occupied by Austria and Germany.

Treaty of Neuilly    27^th November 1919

Confirmed Bulgaria’s loss of territory to the newly formed Yugoslavia, to Romania and to Greece. It left Bulgaria without direct access to the Aegean Sea.

Treaty of Trianon      4^th June 1920

Signed with Hungary. Removed two-thirds of the land it controlled as part of the Austro-Hungarian empire. Three million ethnic Hungarians now found themselves living outside their country, most of them in Romania.

Treaty of Sevres      10^th August 1920

Signed with Turkey to confirm end of Ottoman empire. Its terms led to Turkey’s war of independence in its war with Greece.  Britain received a mandate for Palestine and Mesopotamia, and France one for Lebanon and Syria.

Treaty of Lausanne       24^th July 1923

An extensive Treaty in which Ataturk held the upper hand and Allies were no longer making the rules. Reversed much of the Treaty of Sevres to recognise a sovereign, independent Turkey in return for Turkey’s permanent renunciation of all other former Ottoman territories. It contained a convention for the exchange of Greek and Turkish populations found on the wrong side of new borders.

Treaty of Locarno     5-16^th October 1925

Extraordinary treaty that contained seven agreements aimed at improving post war reconciliation between France and Germany, and reducing tension in the new borders on Germany’s east. Initially hailed as a success, with three of its authors receiving Nobel Peace Prizes, in the long term it probably did more to facilitate Hitler’s moves in the 1930s that the Treaty of Versailles.