This is a woefully inadequate brief summary of the events leading up to 1914, a subject on which billions of scholarly words have been written from a vast range of perspectives. It helped me, though, to get my head around a sequence of linked but disparate historical moments
1. Warning Signs and
Portents.
The balance of power in 18th and
19th Century Europe was held by the great powers: Russia; Prussia; France;
Britain; and Austro-Hungarian (Habsburg) empires. To the East the Ottoman
empire covered much of Eastern Europe (Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, then
Asia Minor extending to the middle east.
- Multiple small European states especially prior to the unification of Italy after Napoleonic wars; and of Germany by Bismarck later in 19th century.
- Creation of Germany as a super power - especially after the 1870 Franco-Prussian war, which weakened France - led to a change in the equations of power, with a rising, ambitious Germany as the greatest new influence. Other changes, tensions and hotspots:
- Gradual weakening and eventual crumbling of Ottoman empire creating instability in the east
- Weakening of the Austro-Hungarian empire, with Hungary wishing to be free of Habsburg rule
- Ethnic and nationalist tensions in the Balkans, with Serbia in particular wishing to be independent of Austria-Hungary. Balkan league v Ottomans; 1st Balkan War 1912; 2nd Balkan War 1913
- Developing alliance between Russia and France (traditionally enemies viz 1812) as balance to ‘central’ European power of Germany / Austria
- Developing entent cordiale (1906) between Britain and France, traditionally enemies.
- Global power of the British Fleet unchallenged since Trafalgar 1805 envied by many, but particularly by Germany
The Agadir
crisis of July/August 1911 was the first
diplomatic incident with flexing of muscles by Germany to test out France’s
resolve re empire in Africa and supremacy on the sea. Agadir is a small port on
the Atlantic coast of North Africa. German ships put in there, and high ranking
Germans visited triumphantly. Lots of diplomatic activity calmed things down,
but people looked seriously at likely military aspects of a war between the
great powers. Agadir ended in November 1911, with the
usual imperialists' carve-up, and self protection, but it made people think seriously about how war would impact. Churchill’s (WSC) memo at the time on likely 20 day and
40 day positions of opposing forces in Europe proved remarkably accurate when it actually
transpired in 1914.
In 1908-09 Kaiser Wilhelm II (KW2) and
Austrian Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand became close friends, mainly because KW2
was very friendly and welcoming to FF’s wife, the Countess Chotek, who was
ostracized and unpopular in Austrian high society.
FF held power in the AH empire from around
1890, though his elderly uncle, Franz Joseph was the emperor. In 1906 FF
appointed Conrad von Hotzendorf to modernize the Austrian army. They pursued
war with four natural enemies: Italy, Rumania, Russia and Serbia. The strategy
was to take them on one at a time. WSC said of von Hotzendorf “he dwelt year after year at the very centre
of Europe’s powder magazine, in special charge of the detonators”.
From 1909,
Sukhomlinov was Russian minister for war. He made huge improvements
following disastrous defeats in Manchuria in 1908, but in 1915 was scapegoated
for defeats and was imprisoned for life, until rescued by Lenin after the
Revolution in 1917. Sagonov was the influential Foreign Minister
In France, Joffre
came to power as Vice-President for war in July 1911.
In December 1913, Russia unsheathed its
diplomatic sabres again when General Otto Liman von Sanders took command of a
Turkish army corps in Constantinople. But the Ottoman navy already employed a
British admiral, Arthur Limpus. Neither France nor Britain felt very much
alarmed.
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