Warning Signs and Portents.

This is a woefully inadequate brief summary of the events leading up to 1914, a subject on which billions of scholarly words have been written from a vast range of perspectives. It helped me, though, to get my head around a sequence of linked but disparate historical moments

1. Warning Signs and Portents.

The balance of power in 18^th and 19^th Century Europe was held by the great powers: Russia; Prussia; France; Britain; and Austro-Hungarian (Habsburg) empires. To the East the Ottoman empire covered much of Eastern Europe (Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey, then Asia Minor extending to the middle east. 

• Multiple small European states especially prior to the unification of Italy after Napoleonic wars; and of Germany by Bismarck later in 19^th century.
• Creation of Germany as a super power - especially after the 1870 Franco-Prussian war, which weakened France - led to a change in the equations of power, with a rising, ambitious Germany as the greatest new influence. Other changes, tensions and hotspots:
•  Gradual weakening and eventual crumbling of Ottoman empire creating instability in the east
• Weakening of the Austro-Hungarian empire, with Hungary wishing to be free of Habsburg rule
• Ethnic and nationalist tensions in the Balkans, with Serbia in particular wishing to be independent of Austria-Hungary. Balkan league v Ottomans; 1^st  Balkan War 1912; 2^nd Balkan War 1913
• Developing alliance between Russia and France (traditionally enemies viz 1812) as balance to ‘central’ European power of  Germany / Austria
• Developing entent cordiale (1906) between Britain and France, traditionally enemies.
• Global power of the British Fleet unchallenged since Trafalgar 1805 envied by many, but particularly by Germany

The Agadir crisis of July/August 1911 was the first diplomatic incident with flexing of muscles by Germany to test out France’s resolve re empire in Africa and supremacy on the sea. Agadir is a small port on the Atlantic coast of North Africa. German ships put in there, and high ranking Germans visited triumphantly. Lots of diplomatic activity calmed things down, but people looked seriously at likely military aspects of a war between the great powers. Agadir ended in November 1911, with the usual imperialists' carve-up, and self protection, but it made people think seriously about how war would impact.  Churchill’s (WSC) memo at the time on likely 20 day and 40 day positions of opposing forces in Europe proved remarkably accurate when it actually transpired in 1914.

In 1908-09 Kaiser Wilhelm II (KW2) and Austrian Crown Prince Franz Ferdinand became close friends, mainly because KW2 was very friendly and welcoming to FF’s wife, the Countess Chotek, who was ostracized and unpopular in Austrian high society.

FF held power in the AH empire from around 1890, though his elderly uncle, Franz Joseph was the emperor. In 1906 FF appointed Conrad von Hotzendorf to modernize the Austrian army. They pursued war with four natural enemies: Italy, Rumania, Russia and Serbia. The strategy was to take them on one at a time. WSC said of von Hotzendorf “he dwelt year after year at the very centre of Europe’s powder magazine, in special charge of the detonators”.

From 1909,  Sukhomlinov was Russian minister for war. He made huge improvements following disastrous defeats in Manchuria in 1908, but in 1915 was scapegoated for defeats and was imprisoned for life, until rescued by Lenin after the Revolution in 1917. Sagonov was the influential Foreign Minister 

In France, Joffre came to power as Vice-President for war in July 1911.

In December 1913, Russia unsheathed its diplomatic sabres again when General Otto Liman von Sanders took command of a Turkish army corps in Constantinople. But the Ottoman navy already employed a British admiral, Arthur Limpus. Neither France nor Britain felt very much alarmed.

Contents

World War One - I was there in spirit

Contents

Sean Hilton

Background and General Summaries

Why On Earth Blog About World War One?                                        10/31/14

Warning Signs and Portents                                                                  10/31/14

The Assassination                                                                                  11/6/14

War becomes inevitable                                                                         11/8/14

Britain's first few weeks                                                                         11/10/14

Should Britain have stayed out of the War?                                           11/14/14

Strength of the combatants and the nature of 'modern war’                  11/16/14

General situation at the end of 1914                                                        2/19/15

1915. Early decisions – Eastern or Western front strategy?                    3/17/15

August 15th 1915                                                                                     8/15/15

11/11/1915 - remembrance for the year in numbers                               11/10/15

The final weeks of 1915                                                                          12/1/15

December Visits                                                                                       12/18/15

General Situation in early 1916                                                                  1/3/16

Postcards from France                                                                               4/11/16

From Western Australia                                                                             3/23/16

WW1 - Half time                                                                                       10/15/16

End of 1916 position 1: The German Peace Proposal                                12/19/16

End of 1916 position 2: Russia, Middle East and Naval matters                12/23/16

1917 begins - hopes and fears                                                                     1/4/17

Three years in - 3rd August 1917                                                                 8/2/17

End of 1917 position: Part 1                                                                        12/10/17

End of 1917 position: Part 2                                                                        12/21/17

Allied Strategic Developments early 1918                                                   1/13/18

Postcards from the heart of the Western Front                                              3/9/18
Postcards from Mons Armistice Day                                                          11/11/18

The Western Front 1914-18

The Schlieffen Plan                                                                                         11/13/14

Battle of the Frontiers (1) - Plan and Counter Plan                                         11/9/14

Battle of the Frontiers (2) - Joffre's Folly                                                        11/22/14

Battle of the Frontiers (3) - Overwhelmed in the North West.                        11/23/14

Mons - and the strategic retreat begins                                                            11/25/14

Haig takes flight                                                                                               11/27/14

Heroics at Le Cateau and beyond                                                                    12/7/14

No more retreating - the build up to Battle of the Marne                                12/11/14

The Marne - Part 1. Joffre's Finest Hour                                                         12/13/14

The Marne - Part 2 Joffre meets French, and Edward Spears                         12/15/14

The Marne - Part 3. Outcome uncertain in the fog of war                              12/17/14

The Marne - Part 4: Lt Colonel Richard Hentsch                                            12/21/14

The Marne - Part 5. The Allies advance                                                          12/22/14

The Marne - Part 6. Impact of the battle.                                                         12/24/14

The Christmas Truce 1914                                                                               12/25/14

The Battle of the Aisne 1                                                                                 12/27/14

The Battle of the Aisne 2                                                                                 12/30/14

The race to the sea develops                                                                              1/1/15

The Defence of Antwerp and the battle for North Belgium                              1/2/15

Arras, Lille and la Bassee                                                                                  1/4/15

First Ypres - Part 1 The next great decisive event                                             1/5/15

First Ypres - Part 2 Heroic action by the Worcesters                                         1/6/15

The Western Front at end of 1914                                                                      1/9/15

Western Front early 2015                                                                                   3/28/15

The Battle of Neuve Chapelle                                                                            4/7/15

The Second Battle of Ypres                                                                                5/30/15

Allied offensives in Champagne and Artois                                                   6/4/15

The Battle of Loos                                                                                          10/6/15

Verdun 1: Falkenhayn's judgement                                                                  2/5/16

Verdun 2: French positions and preparations                                                 2/17/16

Verdun 3: The opening onslaught 21st - 25th February                                 2/21/16

Verdun 4: The second phase - 25th February to 10th March                         2/28/16

Verdun 5: The general assault – March                                                        3/12/16

Verdun 6: France holds - "Ils ne passerons"                                                 4/6/16

Verdun 7 - Tables are turned                                                                         12/15/16

Battle of the Somme 1 - The origins of the Somme Campaign                    6/18/16

Battle of the Somme 2 - Build up to the bombardment                                6/21/16

Battle of the Somme 3 - "U day" - the bombardment begins                       6/24/16

Battle of the Somme 4 - July 1st 1916                                                           6/30/16

Battle of the Somme 5 - action to end of July 1916                                       7/29/16

Battle of the Somme 6 - August 1st to September 25^th                                  8/18/16

Battle of the Somme 7 - November and the official end                                8/30/16

Battle of the Somme 8 - Who 'won'?                                                              9/10/16

Western front early 1917                                                                                 4/18/17

The Battle of Arras                                                                                         4/28/17

The Second Battle of the Aisne                                                                        5/13/17

The taking of Messines Ridge                                                                          6/6/17

Third Battle of Ypres - Part 1: 31st July 1917                                                  7/31/17

Third Battle of Ypres - Part 2: August and September                                   10/1/17

Third Battle of Ypres Part 3: Passchendaele - the Pyrrhic victory                  10/11/17

Cambrai                                                                                                            11/20/17

"Kaisershlacht" - The Kaiser's Battle. 1: Background                                      2/9/18

"Kaiserschlacht" 2: Build up to Operation Michael                                        3/2/18

"Kaiserschlacht" 3: Operation Michael 21st March 1918                               3/21/18

"Kaiserschlacht" 4: The March Retreat                                                           4/3/18

“Kaiserschlacht” 5: The Battle of the Lys Part 1                                             5/8/18

“Kaiserschlacht” 6: The Battle of the Lys Part 2                                            5/10/18

“Kaiserschlacht” 7 - The (3rd) Battle of the Aisne                                        6/26/18

Foch's Masterplan for Victory                                                                        7/31/18

One Hundred Days – 1: The Battle of Amiens                                               8/8/18

One Hundred Days - 2: Arras, Bapaume and Peronne                                   8/23/18

One Hundred Days - 3: The Americans at St. Mihiel and the Argonne         9/15/18

One Hundred Days - 4: The Battle for the Saint-Quentin Canal                   9/24/18
One Hundred Days - 5: The last weeks for Germany                                  10/27/18

The Eastern Front 1914-18

The Eastern Front Part 1                                                                               1/11/15

The Eastern Front Part 2 – Lemberg                                                             1/14/15

The Eastern Front Part 3 - East Prussia and Gumbinnen                               1/18/15

The Eastern Front Part 4 -The Battle of Tannenberg                                     1/23/15

The Eastern Front Part 5 - next steps                                                             1/31/15

The Eastern Front Part 6 - The battles for Warsaw                                         2/6/15

Developments on the Eastern Front                                                               3/25/15

The breakthrough at Gorlice-Tarnow                                                              6/7/15

Continuing reverses on the Eastern Front, summer 1915.                              6/28/15

Eastern Front actions                                                                                      1/25/16

Brusilov's offensive - June-September 1916                                                  5/15/16

Rumania's gamble                                                                                         10/2/16

The Russian Revolution 1: Build up to the February Coup d'Etat               1/27/17

The Russian Revolution 2: to end of March 1917                                         2/23/17

The Russian Revolution 3: April to September 1917                                     8/27/17

The Russian Revolution 4: - Lenin's October Revolution                            10/22/17

The Czech Legion 1                                                                                      11/6/17

The Czech Legion: Part 2                                                                              5/31/18

The Brest-Litovsk Conference and Treaty                                                   1/22/18

South Eastern Europe and The Middle East 1914-18

The fate of Serbia                                                                                          2/12/15

Turkey and the Caucasus are drawn into the war                                         2/17/15

Gallipoli 1. Background and build up                                                          4/17/15

Gallipoli 2. Naval attempt to force the Straits                                              4/18/15

Gallipoli 3. Early outcomes after the naval bombardments                         4/20/15

Gallipoli 4. The Cape Helles landings 25th April                                           4/21/15

Gallipoli 5. The ANZACs mission for 25th April and beyond                       4/24/15

Gallipoli 6. May to August                                                                             4/30/15

Gallipoli 7. Suvla Bay                                                                                     8/5/15

Italy enters the war - May 1915                                                                      7/7/15

Gallipoli 8. The Human Tragedy                                                                    9/6/15

Gallipoli 9. Timeline for Gallipoli and 'dramatis personae'                            9/13/15

Gallipoli 10. The End                                                                                   10/14/15

Galliipoli 11. Aftermath and 'what ifs...'                                                      10/27/15

The Middle East and Africa                                                                         10/12/15

Armenia, Teheran and Baghdad                                                                  11/3/15

Success in Egypt and the fall of Kut                                                              2/1/16

The Balkans in 1915                                                                                    8/26/15

The crushing of Serbia                                                                                 9/29/15

The Italian front and the Trentino offensive                                                5/3/16

Italy's response                                                                                             11/3/16

The capture of Baghdad                                                                               2/3/17

Maude's advance from Baghdad                                                                 7/12/17

The Balkans 1917                                                                                         8/17/17

The Arab Revolt 1: Its Origins                                                                     7/23/17

Italy 1917 - Isonzo Battles 10 and 11                                                            9/16/17

Caporetto                                                                                                       11/13/17

Allenby's Advance to Jerusalem                                                                  12/3/17

The War at Sea 1914-18

South Atlantic Campaign November 1914                                                  11/2/14

The U-Boat war develops                                                                             4/12/15

The Battle of the Dogger Bank 24 January 1915                                         4/1/15

The War at Sea 1915                                                                                    11/17/15

Battle of Jutland 1 – Background                                                                 5/17/16

Battle of Jutland 2 - The build up                                                                 5/24/16

Battle of Jutland 3 - The morning of May 31^st                                             5/25/16

Battle of Jutland 4 - Beattie versus Hipper                                                   5/29/16

Battle of Jutland 5 - Jellicoe and Scheer's encounter                                    5/31/16

Battle of Jutland 6 - The night: fight and flight                                             6/1/16

Battle of Jutland 7 - end of the battle                                                            6/4/16

Battle of Jutland 8 - The Aftermath.                                                              6/7/16

Unrestricted submarine warfare: 1                                                               2/16/17

Unrestricted submarine warfare 2                                                                 9/3/17

The Royal Navy in 1918                                                                               1/7/18

The USA 1917-1918

USA's entry to WW1 1: USA 1914-16                                                            3/9/17

USA's entry into WW1 2: The Zimmermann telegram                                   3/22/17

The Home Fronts

The British Government falls                                                                             5/11/15

Turbulent times for the new government                                                           5/19/15

Home Fronts January - June 1916                                                                     1/16/16

Political changes - Lloyd George reaches Number 10.                                     11/28/16

Keeping the Home Fires Burning: January to May                                            1/7/17

Individuals

The Marne - Part 4: Lt Colonel Richard Hentsche                                          12/21/14

Field Marshall August von Mackensen                                                             7/3/15

The Death of Kitchener                                                                                    6/12/16

One Man's War                                                                                                 9/18/16

The Arab Revolt 2: Lawrence of Arabia                                                          8/30/18

The End of the War

The Capitulation of Germany's Allies: 1 - the End for Austria-Hungary     10/8/18
The Capitulation of Germany's Allies: 2 - Bulgaria and Turkey                  10/10/18

Germany Concedes                                                                                         7/11/18

Epilogue

Armistice Day and its Aftermath                                                               11/11/11
Aftermath and afterthoughts 1 - The Great War?                                      11/18/18
Aftermath and afterthoughts 2 - The Grim Reaper                                    11/26/18

The Treaty of Versailles 1 - The Paris Peace Conference begins                6/18/19
The Treaty of Versailles 2 - Addressing the chaos in Europe                      6/22/19
The Treaty of Versailles 3 - The Middle East and Asia                               6/24/19
The Treaty of Versailles 4 - Germany signs                                                6/28/19
The Treaty of Versailles 5 - The fall out                                                      6/30/19
Conclusions and Appendices                                                                        7/1/19
Bibliography and Sources                                                                          11/23/14